Showing posts with label hold up. Show all posts
Showing posts with label hold up. Show all posts

Monday, 13 July 2026

FRAND licensing needs a taxonomy: valuation absent context is misvaluation

The World Intellectual Property Organization's recent report on SEP valuation methodologies provides a useful overview of comparable licences, bottom-up valuation and top-down approaches. However, in my view, the most important issue in FRAND valuation remains underexplored: the need to distinguish between fundamentally different categories of licensing and commercial arrangements.

This article argues that much FRAND analysis suffers from false commensurability. Bilateral licences, cross-licences, collective licensing platforms, patent pools, paid-up lump-sum settlements and royalty-free regimes are frequently converted into common metrics such as ad valorem rates or dollar-per-unit royalties and then treated as directly comparable. In the process, critical commercial context can be lost in translation.

Using examples including Nokia's agreements with Apple and Microsoft, Avanci's $32-per-vehicle automotive licensing model, public licensing programmes from Qualcomm and InterDigital, and recent FRAND decisions including Samsung v ZTE, Optis v Apple and InterDigital v Lenovo, I examine how royalty metrics, payment structures, bargaining conditions and strategic objectives can materially affect negotiated outcomes.

I also discuss the risks associated with cross-licence unpacking, portfolio-strength-ratio methodologies, patent counting, manufactured comparables, and the tendency to treat complex licensing agreements as if they can be translated mechanically into equivalent royalty rates.

My central thesis is simple:

The first question in FRAND valuation should not be "Which methodology should we use?" but "What exactly are we trying to value?"

The resulting rates may appear objective and comparable, but instead still reflect the bargaining asymmetries, strategic objectives, risk allocations and other distortions that shaped the original deal.

Download the full article from SSRN, here.

Wednesday, 19 August 2015

Cumulative mobile-SEP royalty payments no more than around 5% of mobile handset revenues

As indicated in the recent IP Finance guest posting about the US Court of Appeals judgment in Microsoft Corp. versus Motorola Inc., by Kevin Winters, in some cases there can be a massive difference between what a licensor asks for and what a licensee ends up paying in fees and royalty rates for standard-essential patents. My latest blog posting assesses cumulative royalties paid on SEPs in mobile phones, including multiple licensors, by adding up what is actually paid and what is conservatively the maximum likely to be paid, where actual payment figures are not publicly available. This total is far lower than that calculated by simply piling-up every licensor's rate demands. Expressed as a yield on total mobile handset sales revenues, it is a much smaller percentage than this speculative and defective "royalty stack" calculation.
Cumulative mobile-SEP royalty payments no more than around 5% of mobile handset revenues
Vested interests including leaders at the mobile operator-dominated NGMN Alliance promote the notion that patent licensing fee rates are “perceived” to be too high in mobile technologies; but without substantiation for such claims. Speculation that patent fees, largely for mobile SEPs, may total 30 percent of smartphone costs are projected by Intel and others.[1]  This grossly inflated figure is based on theories of hold-up and royalty stacking that lack empirical support and it ignores marketplace realities including cross licensing and discounting rates for other reasons in patent-licensing agreement negotiations, as I have already noted here and here.  That percentage would equate to more than $110 billion being paid per year in patent fees based on total global handset revenues estimated by Morgan Stanley and IDC to be  $377 billion in 2013 and $410 billion in 2014.
Actual payments are much smaller than such perceptions and projections. The following table summarizes fairly exhaustive analysis of significant mobile-SEP licensing costs based on reported licensing revenues from the audited financial reports of major licensors and other public sources including patent pool rate-card charges.  Based on these figures, it is implausible that total royalties actually paid, including lump sums and running royalties, for standard-essential 2G, 3G, and 4G technologies, amount to more than approximately $20 billion per year. This figure represents a cumulative royalty yield for licensors of around five percent on mobile handset revenues.
Mobile SEP Licensing Fee Revenues and Royalty Yields on Global Handset Market

2014

Revenues
Yield*
Major SEP owners with licensing programs: Alcatel-Lucent, Ericsson, Nokia, InterDigital, Qualcomm
$10.6 billion
2.6%
Patent Pools: SIPRO (WCDMA), Via Licensing (LTE), Sisvel (LTE)
<$4 billion
<1%
Others: including Apple, Huawei, RIM, Samsung, LG
<$6 billion
<1.5%
Cumulative maximum:  fees and yield for mobile SEPs
~$20 billion
~5%


* Yields are total licensing fee revenues including lump sums and running royalties as a percentage of $410 billion in total global handset revenues
The majority of mobile-SEP licensing fees are earned by five companies with licensing programs who have collectively contributed most patented technologies to 2G, 3G and 4G standards.  Alcatel-Lucent, Ericsson, InterDigital, Nokia and Qualcomm altogether generate $10.6 billion per year in licensing fees for these and other technologies. Also collectively, this represents a yield of significantly less than three percent of total global revenues for mobile handsets including smartphones.
Cumulative mobile-SEP fees paid also include less than around one percent of total handset revenues to the three mobile-SEP patent pools plus, at most, one percent or so more to other companies licensing mobile SEPs bilaterally. Patent pools lay out their prices and so these indicate the maximum they might be able to collect with willing and responsive licensees and a lot of licensing effort on the part of the pool administrators. The remaining significant mobile-SEP owners are predominantly handset manufacturers who mainly cross-license to reduce royalty out-payments rather than generate royalty income, and so their royalty fee revenues are relatively small. With each percent of royalty yield on total handset revenues now representing more than $4 billion per year in patent fees, there is insufficient evidence and no justification to conclude that opportunists not included in any of the above categories, including so-called patent trolls, patent-assertion entities and other non-practising entities, yield more than a fraction of a percent of total handset costs.
As a percentage of all consumer charges, including handset costs and $1.13 trillion in mobile operator services (GSMA Wireless Intelligence figures), which are also highly dependent on SEP technologies, the cumulative royalty yield shrinks to 1.3 percent.  Deriving this lower percentage yield figure from the broader revenue base is also applicable because it is the innovative and relatively new SEP-based technologies including 3G HSDPA/HSPA and 4G LTE which enable and drive mobile broadband data service growth. Operator revenues in mobile data services (other than basic SMS text messaging) grew from single-digit percentages of total service revenues until the introduction of HSDPA a decade ago, to around 40 percent across the entire Vodafone Group with many different national operators, for example, in 2015, according to the company's annual reports.
My more detailed and much lengthier analysis is in a pdf here.
[1]  A working paper entitled The Smartphone Royalty Stack: Surveying Royalty Demands for the Components Within Modern Smartphones was published by one in-house lawyer at Intel and two outside counsel from WilmerHale. Intel Vice President and Associate General Counsel Ann Armstrong and Wilmer Hale's Joseph Mueller and Timothy Syrett argue that aggregate patent licensing fees including SEPs and non-SEPs are excessive at around $120 per $400 smartphone.

Monday, 25 May 2015

Masterminds Discuss Fair Play, Equitable Rewards and Market Success in Patents and Standards

I had the great privilege of presenting and debating on the topic of “IPR & Standards – Market Failure or Market Success (FRAND Commitments, Obligations of Licensors and Licensees)” at GCR Live’s IP & Antitrust Asia-Pacific conference in Seoul, South Korea, last week.  Distinguished speakers at the event included locals and those from organisations around the world in government agencies (e.g. the Korean Free Trade Commission and the U.S. International Trade Commission), industry, academia and legal practice.
With a legal and economic backdrop, and focus on my specialised subject of standards and patents, the event provided an ideal opportunity to present updates on the rude health of the smartphone and mobile services markets. These are clearly the most SEP-intensive product and service markets in existence: including cellular, other wireless, video and audio compression technologies.

Theories of dysfunctionality and abuse in patent licensing, with SEPs in particular, predict that alleged hold-up and royalty stacking will affect and harm markets and consumers in various ways by reducing R&D, slowing innovation, extracting excessive aggregate royalty payments, stagnating consumer prices, impeding or foreclosing market entry and increasing vertical integration.
I racked my brains to identify and measure all conceivable factors driving good, bad and neutral effects in smartphones and cellular service markets. However, in these “poster-child” markets for (F)RAND-based SEP licensing evidence shows opposite effects to those predicted above, at least since the introduction of 3G technologies 15 years ago and with mass-market smartphones and mobile broadband since around 2007. Everything seems very healthy and, if anything, improving:
  • Consumer adoption and consumption increasing
  • Innovation and technical progress accelerating
  • Cellular technology R&D up 74% to $46bn since 2009
  • Time-to-market for new standards shortening
  • Technology/device OEM vertical integration collapsed
  • Market entry downstream in smartphones burgeoning
  • Concentration in handset OEM supply low and declining
  • Smartphone prices falling on average, and dramatically so, on a quality-adjusted basis
  • Patent royalties are a very small proportion of prices for consumer products and services
“Problems”, therefore, remain no more than unproven threats, after all these years of market success…
Click here for my presentation deck with the supporting facts and figures.