Will Trump Win the Presidential Election in November?

A common general inquiry I get from friends who are not Americans is “what is going on in the United States with respect to Trump—will he be reelected?”.  My answer is, “I don’t know.”  This may surprise some because they see Biden as the obvious winner.  Here are my imperfect and half-baked thoughts on the subject: 

1)      My guess is that we’ll get good news about a vaccine before the election.  It may even be distributed before the election to some in the United States.  My guess is that Trump’s biggest concern with mail in voting is that it’ll occur before the “best” news possible about a vaccine to COVID-19. 

2)     What about Trump’s handling of COVID-19?  This seems to look bad, but see above on point 1.  Also, Trump put the lock-down decisions in the hands of state and local government.  Could Trump have done more earlier?  Yes, I think he could of done more.  The Chinese apparently knew that masks were effective in slowing the spread.  Why didn’t we move faster on that?  But, see state and local government.  And, please don’t forget that many are suffering badly economically because of lock-downs. 

3)     What about Trump’s handling of race-related issues, including the George Floyd horror and BLM?  I think Trump’s botched this badly.  However, please remember that before the last election we had serious BLM protests.  I am concerned that Trump voters have become even more concerned about so-called “law and order issues.”  This means that turn-out amongst the concerned may be strong.  Hopefully, turn-out amongst BLM supporters will be strong.  Please remember one of President Obama’s relatively quick responses to the protests: Be sure to get out and vote in local elections. 

4)     What about the polls?  I haven’t looked closely at this, but my understanding is that the polls are not that far off from where Hilary Clinton was in the last election in battleground states—she had quite a nice lead.  I think Biden has a better lead now.  We’ll see if it holds up.  Also, please don’t forget one of the supposed reasons the last election defied the polls—people didn’t want to admit they were voting for Trump.  That effect may be even stronger now. 

5)     What about the debates?  I am quite worried about this.  I think Trump is going to blast Biden on any supposed mistakes concerning the Obama/Biden administration.  This time Biden is fully on the hook as VP: 1) Opioid Crisis; 2) Crappy Economy in Some Battleground States (goodness, AOC actually is attacking Opportunity Zones); 3) Bad Trade Deals; 4) Skyrocketing Health Care Costs; and 4) the China Relationship.  Finally, Trump doesn’t have to worry about how he looks debating a woman.  He is going to fully unload on Biden.  Biden also does not always present well in debates.  He sometimes looks befuddled.  If Trump is sharp, he may come out as the winner.  Biden needs to hammer Trump on his immigration disasters.  

6)      More stimulus is on the way.  More money directly into the pockets of Americans.  If the Senate Republicans were thinking, they’d continue the $600 unemployment benefit and push up the stimulus.  People are suffering economically.  When was the last time the economy was very good--when Trump was president.  Also, Trump just issued executive orders on pharmaceutical pricing and access--he's fulfilling campaign promises (see debates). 

7)      The most important issue concerning American politics is likely turnout.  If your people don’t turnout, then you’ve got a serious problem.  Will the lack of big-time rallies hurt Trump?  Maybe.  However, I fear the continuing protests in Portland and elsewhere are going to push some Trump protesters to vote.  What about young people?  Are they going to be pissed about Tik Tok?  Well, they need to register to vote.  Guess who won’t be on campus where a lot of voter registration efforts happen?  Young people.  What about Biden’s VP choice?  That may help with turnout for him, but may help the other side as well.  And, don’t forget, the possibility of a Supreme Court vacancy(ies) soon should be a good motivator to turnout.  That’s going to seriously be on the minds of members of both parties—it really should for Dems especially given the age and health of Dem Supreme Court Justices.  

What’s the answer?  I don’t know, but this election cycle is fascinating and the result is going to be devastating to one side.  What impact on IP and Innovation?  Whoever wins the impact will be huge--from USPTO appointments and policy to FTC/DOJ appointments and policy to court appointments to trade. 

Extra Protection for the Bayh-Dole Act Needed in the United States?

Bayh-Dole 40 is a new coalition of supporters of the landmark legislation concerning technology transfer—the Bayh-Dole Act.  The Bayh-Dole 40 has an attractive website with information concerning the history of the Act and its impact.  The press release states: 

Today, a diverse group of research and scientific organizations, as well as those directly involved in commercializing new products, launched Bayh-Dole 40, a coalition that will celebrate and protect the University and Small Business Patent Procedures Act of 1980, better known as the “Bayh-Dole Act.”

The Bayh-Dole Act has empowered universities, small businesses, and nonprofits that have received federal grants to retain ownership of any patented inventions — and license those patents to private firms, who then turn promising ideas into real-life products that improve peoples’ lives. Thanks to Bayh-Dole, the public and private sectors have worked together to translate basic scientific research into life-saving drugs and medical devices, internet and GPS technologies, rechargeable lithium-ion batteries, and countless other innovations.

“Bayh-Dole made the United States the engine of global innovation,” said Bayh-Dole 40 founder and executive director Joseph Allen, who helped enact the law as a member of Senator Birch Bayh’s U.S. Senate Judiciary staff. “The Act reinvigorated research and development in America, spawning breakthrough discoveries ranging from high-yield crops to advanced medicines.”

Thanks to Bayh-Dole, over 200 new therapies — including drugs and vaccines — have been created since 1980. The legislation has also bolstered U.S. economic output by $1.3 trillion, supported 4.2 million jobs, and led to more than 11,000 start-up companies.

Bayh-Dole 40’s founding members include AUTM, Biotechnology Innovation Organization, BioHealth Innovation, Council on Governmental Relations, Information Technology and Innovation Foundation, Licensing Executives Society, and PhRMA, spanning the entire U.S. innovation ecosystem. The coalition will educate lawmakers to ensure the Act is utilized in the way Senators Birch Bayh and Bob Dole envisioned.

“Misusing Bayh-Dole to undermine the existing framework for public-private technology transfer and development, as some lawmakers are suggesting, would jeopardize the future of U.S. life-sciences innovation,” said Stephen Ezell, Vice President of Global Innovation Policy at the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation. “We look forward to engaging Congress on these issues to ensure the United States remains a life-sciences R&D powerhouse.”

About Bayh-Dole 40: Bayh-Dole 40 is a coalition of research and scientific organizations, as well as those directly involved in commercializing new products, dedicated to celebrating and protecting the University and Small Business Patent Procedures Act of 1980, better known as the “Bayh-Dole Act.” The coalition was formed to educate policymakers about Bayh-Dole’s positive impact on medical innovation and defend the Act against imminent threats during its 40th anniversary year.

Bayh-Dole 40’s members include the Association of University Research Parks, AUTM, BIOCOM, BioHealth Innovation, Biotechnology Innovation Organization, California Life Sciences Association (CLSA), Columbia Technology Ventures (CTV), Council on Competitiveness, Council on Governmental Relations, Fuentek, Information Technology and Innovation Foundation, IPWatchdog, Lehigh University Office of Economic Engagement, Licensing Executives Society (LES), Licensing Executives Society (LES) Silicon Valley Chapter, National Venture Capital Association, Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America, Pristine Surgical, STC.UNM, the IDEA Center at the University of Notre Dame, Wisconsin Alumni Research Foundation, and the Yale Office of Cooperative Research.

It is interesting that the existence of the coalition is necessary to protect the Bayh-Dole Act.  There is some polling to support that U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders could defeat President Trump in an election, but I wonder if anyone really believes that polling (besides Sanders supporters) after the results of the last Presidential election. Maybe the concern will be what happens in the election after this one.